A world map of the rate of natural increase shows where populations are growing fastest, where growth has slowed, and where numbers are falling. Migration can reinforce those trends or reverse them.
This map shows the rate of natural increase for each country in 2026—the number of births minus deaths that year, expressed as a percentage of the total population. A diverging color scale marks the two ends of the range: countries with the fastest natural growth (pink), and countries whose populations would already be declining from births and deaths alone (blue), before any migration is considered. The world average is +0.9%.
Africa has the world's highest rate of natural increase, with a regional average of +2.4%, more than two and a half times the world rate. The Central African Republic, Somalia, and Mali each exceed +3%, among the highest rates recorded in the world.
The Americas, Asia, and Oceania, highlighted here, fall in between. All three regions still have positive natural growth, but modestly. Each region averages below the world rate of +0.9%: +0.4% in the Americas, +0.7% in Asia, and +0.8% in Oceania. Japan is the notable exception to Asia's modest-growth average, with a rate of -0.8%.
Europe is the only region where deaths already exceed births, averaging -0.3%. Latvia and Bulgaria have rates below -0.7%, among the lowest anywhere in the world.
The map in the previous section showed natural increase alone. But migration can meaningfully change a country's actual population trajectory. This bar chart ranks countries by rate of natural increase and includes net migration rate (the annual net number of migrants per 1,000 population) for comparison.
In some countries, positive net migration fully offsets a negative rate of natural increase. Italy and Croatia are clear examples: The countries' natural increase of -0.5% is matched almost exactly by net migration of +5 per 1,000 (+0.5%), leaving the populations effectively stable.
Spain represents a case of net growth. While Spain's rate of natural increase at -0.3% is comparable to Italy's and Croatia's, the country has a substantially higher net migration rate of +13 per 1,000 (+1.3%), which drives its overall population change to +1.0%.
Several Eastern European countries show the opposite dynamic: Negative natural increase is compounded by net emigration. For example, Latvia, Serbia, Estonia, Ukraine, and Romania each experience combined population declines ranging from roughly -0.6% to -2.0%.
Natural increase and migration can reinforce or offset one another, and a country's actual growth rate depends on both. A country that appears to be shrinking based on natural increase alone may prove close to stable, or even grow, once migration is considered—as in Italy, Croatia, and Spain—or decline more steeply, as in much of Eastern Europe.